Raspadskaya’s 2026 outlook: coal costs, cash flow and the mining base

The outlook at the start of 2026

Raspadskaya’s management saw no stable, fundamental basis for a substantial improvement in coal-market conditions on 2 March 2026, despite a brief seasonal increase in overseas prices. Its priorities were further cost reductions, operating efficiency and financial stability. The company attributed pressure on demand to weakness in steel and construction markets, alongside cost inflation, a stronger rouble and export restrictions. Its 2025 revenue was RUB 119.238 billion, down 26%, while EBITDA was negative RUB 16.584 billion. Raw-coal production remained at 18.5 million tonnes and coal-product sales increased 7% to 13.8 million tonnes. Capital expenditure was RUB 21.673 billion. Operating cash flow after capital expenditure was negative RUB 2.794 billion. The board recommended no dividend for 2025.

The mining and processing network

Raspadskaya’s 2023 operating network comprised eight underground mines, two open pits, three coal-washing plants and ten service enterprises. Its assets formed an integrated metallurgical-coal business, with coking-coal reserves of 1.8 billion tonnes. The company employed 17,747 people. The production chain comprised six stages:

Exploration of deposits.
Preparation of reserves.
Mining.
Coal washing.
Transportation.
Sales of coal products.

For that reporting year, coal-product sales were 14.5 million tonnes and procurement amounted to $2.1 billion. Spending on industrial safety and occupational health was $85.7 million, while social investment totaled $5.7 million. The company estimated its share of Russian coal-product sales at 17–20% and its share of world coking-coal exports at 2.7%. These were company estimates for the 2023 reporting base. Its business model included both the production resources and the personnel, suppliers, contractors and customers involved in moving coal from deposits to its final markets.

The first-half 2022 financial base

First-half 2022 revenue was $1.691 billion, compared with $683 million in the prior-year period. EBITDA reached $1.054 billion, against $310 million, and net profit was $662 million, compared with $161 million. Operating cash flow was $533 million, up from $314 million. The earlier half-year comparatives incorporated adjustments following the final allocation of the Yuzhkuzbassugol acquisition price. Gross profit was $1.198 billion, while operating profit was $839 million. Selling and distribution expenses reached $180 million, compared with $40 million a year earlier.

Raspadskaya PJSC

Raw-coal output was 10.1 million tonnes, compared with 11.6 million tonnes in the first half of 2021. Cash cost per tonne of concentrate increased 73% to $62. Capital expenditure was $97 million, down from $113 million. At 30 June 2022, cash and cash equivalents totaled $242 million and debt was $128 million. The board did not recommend a first-half dividend. Management was adapting export channels, developing the Indian market and redirecting European export flows towards Asia-Pacific markets. It also pursued alternative equipment suppliers and a cost-reduction programme.

Annual earnings and working capital in 2022

Full-year 2022 revenue increased 35% to $2.842 billion. EBITDA was $1.295 billion, compared with $1.332 billion in 2021, while net profit declined to $782 million from $875 million. Operating cash flow reached $915 million, against $869 million. Raw-coal output was 21.5 million tonnes, compared with 22.8 million tonnes a year earlier. Cash cost per tonne of concentrate increased 69% to $66. Capital expenditure was $231 million, close to the previous year’s $228 million. The company continued adapting its export channels and equipment procurement arrangements.

Working capital increased by $385 million during the year. Raspadskaya associated the increase with changes in its sales chain and longer processing times for export payments. Selling and distribution expenses rose by $460 million as FOB, CIF and CFR deliveries began; much of that increase was also recognized in revenue. The company fully repaid the bank loans it had received in 2021. Year-end cash and cash equivalents were $385 million, while remaining debt was $23 million. The board recommended no dividend for the 2022 financial year.

Production moves and first-half 2023 results

First-half 2023 revenue declined 27% to $1.226 billion, while EBITDA fell 59% to $432 million. Net profit was $314 million, down 53%, and the net-profit margin was 26%. Cash cost per tonne of concentrate remained at $62. Capital expenditure increased 7% to $104 million. During the half-year, Raspadskaya was implementing major projects at the Raspadskaya, Raspadskaya-Koksovaya and Osinnikovskaya mines and the Raspadsky open pit. The board recommended no dividend for the period, and no dividend payments were made during those six months.

Raw-coal production was 8.9 million tonnes, down 11%. The company attributed the reduction chiefly to more difficult geological conditions at Alardinskaya and longwall equipment moves at Raspadskaya-Koksovaya, Osinnikovskaya, Uskovskaya and Esaulskaya. Coal processing increased 4% to 9.7 million tonnes, while concentrate production increased 6% to 6.9 million tonnes. Concentrate yield was 70.7%, an improvement of 1.4 percentage points. Management was working to increase deliveries to India, optimize logistics and change suppliers for key equipment, while introducing digital technologies and data-based operating management.

A new Osinnikovskaya coalface

Osinnikovskaya began working a new coalface in August 2023 with reserves of 1.2 million tonnes of Zh-grade coking coal. The face was 300 metres long and lay at a depth of 600 metres. Raspadskaya described it at that time as the mine’s longest face. The mine planned monthly extraction of a little more than 100,000 tonnes from the new working area.

The company expected the reserves to be worked out by March 2024. That date was the projected extraction deadline attached to the August commissioning, rather than a subsequently confirmed completion. Osinnikovskaya was part of the integrated group alongside the Raspadskaya underground and open-pit operations and its other coking-coal mines.

The flagship mine’s longer-term development project

Raspadskaya launched an investment project at its flagship mine on 23 August 2023. The planned investment exceeded RUB 13 billion, covering development of seams containing more than 60 million tonnes of coal. The first coalface in the new project was scheduled to start in 2027. Raspadskaya Coal Company and Beijing LongRuan Technologies signed a cooperation agreement that day covering exchanges of know-how, innovation and the development of smart mining. The project involved Chinese partners in the planned expansion of the mine.

The proposed operation would use three-dimensional geological models, video surveillance and machine-vision systems in its workings. Remote operation of the coalface through intelligent systems was also planned. Separately, management retained a longer-term ambition to raise group coal production to 30 million tonnes annually. It had moved that target beyond the previous 2024–2025 timetable. The revised horizon could include mergers and acquisitions, rather than rely mainly on increased open-pit output. The investment project’s 2027 starting date and the group’s broader output ambition were separate forward-looking objectives.

Mezhegei production and the regional development plan

Mezhegeiugol mined 558,000 tonnes of coal in 2022. Its mine resumed production in March that year after a two-year suspension caused by a lack of demand. Production capacity at the Mezhegeiskoye deposit was one million tonnes of Zh-grade coking coal annually. Proven and probable reserves, reported under the JORC standard, were estimated at 86 million tonnes at the end of 2022. The deposit lies in the Ulug-Khemsky coal basin in Tuva, alongside the company’s mining activities in the Kemerovo region.

A strategy for the Siberian Federal District’s development through 2035 listed a mining-complex project at Mezhegeiskoye with investment of RUB 11 billion. The strategy assigned implementation to the Tuva government and Mezhegeiugol Management Company and scheduled the work for 2024. Raspadskaya declined to comment on the project and its parameters when the plan was reported in October 2023. Mezhegeiugol also held the Vostochny property licence in the western Ulug-Khemsky basin; that project was suspended because construction of the Kyzyl–Kuragino railway had been delayed.

Uskovskaya’s 2025 production area

Uskovskaya commissioned coalface 48-12 on 30 July 2025. It contained more than 2.2 million tonnes of GZh-grade coking coal and lay at a depth of up to 370 metres. The commissioning figures gave a stated length of 1,710 metres. Preparation had begun in June 2024, with three tunnelling crews driving nine kilometres of workings. The mine planned to complete extraction from the area in April 2026. That was a forward schedule when the new working area entered operation.

The installed equipment included a mechanized complex, a shearer and a face conveyor. Monitoring combined air-and-gas controls, an acoustic seismic-monitoring system and personnel positioning. Cameras covered the working area, and individual recorders on miners’ cap lamps supplied additional information about underground conditions. Uskovskaya’s total balance reserves were 328 million tonnes, while industrial reserves were 153 million tonnes.

The full-year 2023 position

Raspadskaya’s 2023 revenue was $2.210 billion, down 22%, and EBITDA declined 47% to $689 million. Net profit fell 44% to $440 million, with earnings of 66.1 US cents per share and a net-profit margin of 20%. Operating profit was $519 million. Raw-coal production declined to 18.9 million tonnes from 21.5 million tonnes in 2022. Coal-product sales were 14.5 million tonnes, compared with 14.2 million tonnes. The company linked the revenue decline to weaker world coking-coal prices during the reporting year.

Cash cost per tonne of concentrate fell to $60 from $66. Raspadskaya attributed the reduction to the weaker rouble and management’s cost-control efforts. Capital expenditure was $220 million, compared with $231 million in 2022. Operating cash flow after capital expenditure was $57 million, down from $684 million. At year-end, cash, cash equivalents and short-term bank deposits totaled $332 million, against debt of $28 million. Commercial expenses increased $70 million after changes in delivery terms, with much of the increase also reflected in revenue. The board recommended no annual dividend.

Higher production and a loss in the first half of 2024

First-half 2024 raw-coal production increased to 9.9 million tonnes from 8.9 million tonnes a year earlier. Coal-product sales were 7.1 million tonnes, compared with 7.4 million tonnes. Revenue declined 19% to $999 million, and EBITDA fell 51% to $213 million. The company reported a net loss of $99 million, against a $314 million profit in the previous first half. Gross profit was $479 million. Cash cost per tonne of concentrate increased to $65 from $62, which Raspadskaya associated with inflation.

Capital expenditure rose to $152 million from $104 million. Operating cash flow after capital expenditure was negative $48 million, compared with a positive $62 million a year earlier. Management revised production plans at assets where expected costs and selling prices had deteriorated, resulting in $194 million of impairment losses. At 30 June 2024, cash, cash equivalents and short-term deposits totaled $288 million and debt was $58 million. The board recommended no first-half dividend, citing the market volatility and the company’s financial results when explaining its decision.

The December 2024 Raspadskaya mine commissioning

Raspadskaya mine commissioned another coalface on 27 December 2024 with industrial reserves exceeding three million tonnes. Preparation had taken more than a year, including mine-development, tunnelling and installation work. Five development crews drove approximately seven kilometres of workings. The new face was 300 metres long and operated at a depth of 620 metres. A mechanized mining complex was installed for the extraction work. The company planned to work the reserves over approximately eighteen months, a schedule attached to the commissioning announcement.

The working area included an air-and-gas monitoring system and continuous online monitoring of technological processes. Machine-vision technology formed part of those controls, and surveillance cameras covered the face along its length.

Capital spending and impairments in the 2024 results

Full-year 2024 revenue declined 21% to $1.743 billion and EBITDA fell 58% to $291 million. Raspadskaya reported a $133 million net loss, compared with a $440 million profit in 2023. The operating loss was $114 million. Raw-coal output declined to 18.5 million tonnes from 18.9 million tonnes, while coal-product sales fell 11% to 12.9 million tonnes. Management attributed the sales reduction to export restrictions amid greater sanctions pressure. Cash cost per tonne of concentrate increased to $64 from $60.

Capital expenditure increased to $294 million from $220 million as the long-term investment programme continued. Operating cash flow after capital expenditure was negative $295 million, compared with positive $57 million in 2023. Year-end cash, cash equivalents and short-term deposits were $87 million, with debt of $48 million. The company recognized $205 million of impairment linked to revised mine plans and possible early cessation of extraction, plus $2 million from reassessing restoration provisions for two closed mines. The board recommended no 2024 dividend, taking account of the financial results and market conditions.

The first-half 2025 trading and cash-flow position

First-half 2025 revenue declined 30% to $699 million. EBITDA was negative $99 million, compared with positive $213 million a year earlier. The net loss increased to $199 million from $99 million. Raw-coal production declined to 8.9 million tonnes from 9.9 million tonnes, and sales fell 10% to 6.4 million tonnes. Management associated the production decline mainly with concentrated longwall equipment moves during the half-year. It attributed weaker sales to lower output and adverse demand conditions in Russia and export markets, including sanctions pressure.

Cash cost per tonne of concentrate remained at $65. The company attributed that stability to optimization programmes despite lower output, rouble appreciation and inflation. Capital expenditure declined to $113 million from $152 million. Operating cash flow after capital expenditure was negative $3 million, compared with negative $48 million, with the improvement linked to reduced investment and changes in working capital. At 30 June 2025, cash, cash equivalents and short-term deposits were $125 million, against debt of $52 million. The board recommended no dividend for the first six months.